Random Samplings

Census Bureau Announces Schedule for Population Estimates Releases

Written by: Victoria Velkoff

The 2010 Census counted 3 million residents of Orange County, Calif. How quickly has the home of Disneyland grown since? You will find out a little later this year, as the Census Bureau releases several sets of population estimates pertaining to July 1, 2011.

The Census Bureau releases population estimates every year, except during decennial census years. These estimates measure population change since the latest census using administrative records and survey data and are used heavily by local planners.

The release of these various sets of estimates will occur on a flow basis starting April 5, with estimates of the total population for counties, Puerto Rico municipios, and metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, and continuing through June 28 with estimates of the total population for cities, towns and other subcounty areas. In between, we will publish U.S., state, and county estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, as well as estimates of housing units for the nation, states and counties.

Two sets of estimates have already been released — those for the total population for the nation and states (in December) and the voting-age population of states (Jan. 5). To access these estimates... 

For more information on the methodology used to produce the population estimates, Population Estimates Methodology...

Read the press release...

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First Population Estimates Since 2010 Census are Released

Written by: Alexa Jones-Puthoff

It probably seems like just yesterday that you filled out and mailed back your 2010 Census form. But it has already been well over a year, and in that time, our society has hardly remained static.

Today, the Census Bureau released its first set of population estimates since the initial release of census results a year ago. These numbers estimate the total population of each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico as of July 1, 2011, and measure how much the population has increased or decreased in these jurisdictions since the 2010 Census. A combination of administrative records — including birth and death records and tax returns from the IRS — and survey data are utilized to arrive at these figures.

According to the results, Texas has gained more people since the census than any other state, adding more than a half million people. California, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina followed. Altogether, these five states accounted for slightly more than half the nation’s total population growth.

Nationally, the U.S. population growth of 0.92 percent between the census and July 1, 2011, marked its lowest since the mid-1940s.

The fastest-growing state or equivalent since the census was the District of Columbia, whose population rose 2.7 percent. This marks the first time the District of Columbia led states and equivalents in growth since the early 1940s.

The list of fastest-growing states and equivalents includes some states that in recent years have not been there. One state that falls into this category is North Dakota, which ranked 37th in population growth between censuses, but sixth since the 2010 census. Other fast-growing states, such as Texas, Utah, Alaska and Colorado, were no strangers on the list.

California, with 37.7 million residents, remains our most populous state. Wyoming remains the least populous state, with 568,000 residents.

To see the complete list of the fastest-growing states and those with the largest numerical increase, as well as other highlights from the state population estimates, read the press release.

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Majority of the Black Population Lived in the South

Written by: Sonya Rastogi, Tallese D. Johnson, Elizabeth M. Hoeffel and Malcolm P. Drewery, Jr.

The Black population was highly concentrated in counties in the South.  In 106 counties, the Black alone-or-in-combination population represented 50 percent or more of the total county population.  All of these counties were located in the South except for the city of St. Louis, MO, which is considered a county equivalent. These patterns were similar for the Black alone population.

Concentrations of Blacks outside of the South tended to be in counties located within metropolitan statistical areas.  There were 317 counties where the Black alone-or-in-combination population was 25.0 percent to 49.9 percent of the county population, and only 17 of these counties were not in the South.  Of these 17 counties, 15 were in metro areas.  This pattern was similar for the Black alone population.

Although the Black alone-or-in-combination population and the Black alone population were not as concentrated in counties in midwestern states, in some metro areas, such as around Chicago, IL and Detroit, MI, the proportion Black was much higher than the national average of 13 percent.  Also, in some metro areas in the West, such as around San Francisco, CA and Sacramento, CA, the proportion Black was above the national average.    

The Black population in the South experienced mixed growth – some counties experienced an increase, while others experienced a decline.  Among the 1,558 counties with a Black alone-or-in-combination population over 1,000 people, over one-third (536 counties) had an increase of 25 percent or more from 2000 to 2010.  On the other hand, 100 counties had a decrease of over 10 percent.  The Black alone-or-in-combination population in counties located in northeastern states such as Maine, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania grew significantly, as well as counties in the South, specifically Florida, which had a number of counties that grew by 25 percent or more. 

Large growth in the Black alone-or-in-combination population also occurred in the West and sections of the Midwest.  Counties in Arizona, Nevada, California, Oregon, and Washington grew substantially between 2000 and 2010.  The Midwest had pockets of high growth in states such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

The Black alone-or-in-combination population in the South experienced the largest percentage decline between 2000 and 2010.  Counties located in the southern states such as Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia experienced greater declines in the Black alone-or-in-combination population compared with the rest of the nation.  The Black alone population had similar results.

Black and White Multiple-Race Population More Than Doubled

People who reported their race as both Black and White more than doubled from about 785,000 in 2000 to 1.8 million in 2010. This group’s share of the multiple-race Black population increased from 45 percent in 2000 to 59 percent in 2010.

For more information on the Black population, see the 2010 Census Brief, The Black Population: 2010.

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2010 Census Shows the White Population Has Become More Diverse

Written by: Lindsay Hixson, Bradford B. Hepler and Myoung Ouk Kim

The largest race group in the United States – the White population – has become more diverse over the past decade as evidenced by the growth of Hispanics identifying as White and the growth of Whites identifying with multiple races.

Hispanics Comprised Three-Fourths of the Growth of the White Population

The White alone-or-in-combination population increased by 7 percent, from 216.9 million in 2000 to 231.0 million in 2010.  Most of this growth was a result of the increase in the White Hispanic population, which grew by 56 percent between 2000 and 2010.  Of the 231.0 million White alone-or-in-combination population in the 2010 Census, 29.2 million or 13 percent reported they were Hispanic, up from 9 percent in 2000. 

Whites who reported one race and identified as Hispanic accounted for 70 percent of the growth of the White alone-or-in-combination population.  Multiple-race Whites who identified as Hispanic accounted for another 4 percent of the growth of the White alone-or-in-combination population.  Thus, Hispanics accounted for about three-fourths of the increase in the White alone-or-in-combination population.

On the other hand, non-Hispanic single-race Whites contributed to only 16 percent of the growth of the White alone-or-in-combination population from 2000 to 2010. Non-Hispanic multiple-race Whites accounted for the remaining 10 percent of the growth.

White Multiple-Race Reporting Increased by 37 Percent

The multiple-race White population increased by 2 million, an increase of 37 percent in the last decade.  The majority of the increase of the multiple-race White population was driven by the growth of two race combinations.  Over half of this growth was attributed to White and Black, and over one-third was due to White and Asian.  The White and Black population grew by 134 percent or over 1 million people.  The White and Asian population increased by 87 percent or more than 750,000 people over the decade. 

For more information on the White population, see the 2010 Census Brief, The White Population: 2010.

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A Nation Still on the Move But Less Transient Than Before

Written by: Alison Fields

Although many of us still move over the course of a year, we are now less likely to do so. The percentage of people who changed residences in the last year ─ between 2010 and 2011 ─ reached the lowest level since the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey began collecting such information in 1948.

We used to be a much more mobile society. In the mid-1980s, about 20 percent of us moved during the previous year. In 2007, prior to the latest recession, 13.2 percent of us had moved in the previous year. The following year, the rate plunged to a then-record low of 11.9 percent before rebounding a bit to 12.5 percent in 2009. The 2010 rate was not statistically different from the 2009 rate.

The Census Bureau today released four statistical products relating to migration that collectively paint a vivid portrait of our nation’s movers, describing their characteristics and the nature of these moves. One aspect of the findings shows the number of people who moved from one particular state to another using data from the American Community Survey. The most common such move between 2009 and 2010 was from California to Texas: about 70,000 people made such a relocation.

In fact, a move from California to another state comprised four of the 10 most common state-to-state moves (also known as “flows”). In addition to Texas, Arizona, Washington, Oregon and Nevada were the most common destinations of those leaving California. The second most common move overall was New York to Florida, and the third most was Florida to Georgia. It should be noted that flows in the top 10 may not be significantly different from flows outside the top 10.

The majority of Americans ─ 59 percent ─ live in the state in which they were born. There are large variations in this rate, however, between different parts of the country. For instance, the Midwest had the highest rate among regions: 70 percent. This indicates relatively lower lifetime mobility. The West, on the other hand, had the lowest such percentage: 50 percent. This means people there are more mobile over the course of their life.

For more information on Census Bureau migration products... 

Read the press release...

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Older Women Less Likely to Live Alone Now Than A Generation Ago

Written By: Rose Kreider, U.S. Census Bureau

In general, the percent of all households that contain just one person has risen over the last half of the 20th century and into the 21st century. In 1960, 13 percent of all households contained one person, while in 2011, this had risen to 28 percent. While the percentage may not differ significantly from one year to the next, the overall trend has been an upward one. That’s why the decline in one-person households of 0.8 percentage points from 2008 to 2010 stands out.

Since this time period falls roughly during the recent recession, it is tempting to think the recession may have affected the likelihood of adults living alone. However, looking at the percentage of one-person households and years of recession, it doesn’t look like it is necessarily sensitive to recessions, since following each of the three recessions, the year prior did not differ statistically from the year after. (See Figure 1).

One reason we did not see a drop in one-person households following many recessions may be that a substantial proportion of such households contained someone who was 65 or older. People this age are more likely to be retired, and so would be less affected by recession-related job losses. However, the percentage of one-person households headed by someone 65 and older declined from 46 percent in 1971 to 35 percent in 2011.

Some interesting changes in the likelihood of living alone have happened over the last 40 years for men and women age 65 and older. In general, the percentage of men living alone increased, while the percentage of women living alone increased from 1971 to 1991, and then decreased.

The increase for older men was affected by at least two factors: rising life expectancy (from 67 years in 1971 to 75 years in 2007) and a higher percentage who are divorced. 

The increase in life expectancy for men is likely also connected to the decrease in living alone for older women.  Since these older women’s husbands were living longer, the proportion of the women who were widowed decreased, and the proportion married and living with their spouse increased from 1971 to 2011. 

These data come from The Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey, which was conducted in February, March and April of 2011 for a nationwide sample of about 100,000 addresses. Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. For more information on the source of the data and accuracy of the estimates, including standard errors and confidence intervals, see Appendix G at <http://www.census.gov/apsd/techdoc/cps/cpsmar11.pdf>.

Read the press release.

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The World Population at 7 Billion

Written by:  Daniel Goodkind, Population Division, US Census Bureau

The world’s population will shortly reach 7 billion. The United Nations estimates the world will reach this milestone on October 31, 2011. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the world population will pass 7 billion on March 12, 2012   (see graph; for a link to Census Bureau’s estimates of today’s population, as well as annual midyear estimates from 1950 to 2050, see http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/worldpopinfo.php). 

While the true world total population is not known, it is independently estimated by both the United Nations and the Census Bureau. Both organizations begin with separate population estimates for individual countries and areas throughout the world and then compile them into a world count. Country estimates typically are based on national census counts, which usually are taken only once a decade. Thus, to estimate each country population beyond the latest census year requires separate projections based on current demographic trends, which are typically determined using whatever demographic data (sometimes limited) are available. Clearly, there is some uncertainty in world population estimates. Despite some differences, the world population estimates of the United Nations and the Census Bureau are remarkably close, different by less than one half of one percent in 2011.

The rapid increase in the Earth’s population in recent decades is because of an excess of births over deaths. Although birth rates and death rates have both declined sharply since the 1960s, death rates have declined more rapidly than birth rates. The cumulative effect of the excess of births over deaths in recent decades has led to a successive attainment of billion-person milestones every 12 or 13 years.

For instance, according to Census Bureau estimates, the Earth’s population reached 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, and 6 billion in 1999 (these figures are derived from the International Data Base, which compiles demographic estimates for 228 countries and areas of the world). In the future, as fertility continues to fall, it will take longer to add another billion. The Census Bureau currently expects that 14 years will pass before the world reaches the next milestone of 8 billion (in 2026) and then another 16 years before it reaches 9 billion (in 2042). The exact date at which such thresholds will be passed is uncertain, of course, since it depends on future birth and death rates. Even more uncertain is the future year at which the Earth’s population may reach a tipping point and begin to decline.

Perhaps more important than the global population size are underlying demographic trends. One is that population growth is uneven throughout the world – many countries have very low fertility and slow or even negative population growth, while others, particularly developing countries, have high fertility (differences in mortality and migration also affect population growth). Thus, an increasing share of the world’s future population is likely to reside in the developing countries of the world. Other key trends have emerged because of the decline of fertility and mortality. One trend emerging from low fertility is population aging – the increased share of the population at older ages. Population aging presents challenges, particularly for those societies that have limited resources to support this group.

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Blacks and Hispanics made up a growing proportion of voters in 2010 elections

Written by: Tiffany Julian, Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division

The 2008 presidential election saw the largest level of voting turnout among black citizens since the Census Bureau began consistently measuring citizenship status in 1996. A similar peak was also reached for Hispanic citizens. In the election of 2010, did either of these groups keep up their voter turnout rates?

At first glance, the answer is “no” because both groups declined as a portion of the voting population from 2008 to 2010. However, this ignores the large difference in voting patterns between presidential elections and congressional elections.

In presidential elections (2000, 2004, 2008), voter turnout increases for all groups, including black and Hispanic citizens. The black share of the presidential vote in 2000, 2004 and 2008 averaged 0.7 percentage points higher than the following congressional vote (2002, 2006, 2010). The margin for Hispanics was 0.2 percentage points. (These percentages, 0.7 and 0.2 percent, are not statistically different.) A drop-off going from a presidential to a congressional election was to be expected for both groups.

After the record-setting turnout in 2008, neither the Hispanics’ nor the blacks’ share of the vote fell more than it had in most recent congressional elections. As a result, the black and Hispanic contribution to the vote in 2010 was higher than in any of the other congressional elections from 1998 to 2010.

Read the press release.

These numbers come from Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2010, a set of tables that compares voting and registration patterns by demographic, social and geographic characteristics. They also include state figures on voting and registration.

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How small errors can have a big impact on small populations

When you checked the boxes on your census form, you probably did not pay much attention to the form design. But it is something the Census Bureau researches and gives a lot of attention. Something as simple as using vertical instead of horizontal boxes can have a big impact on how you read the form and the data we gather.

If one person’s eye misreads the form and checks the wrong box, it may not change percentages of statistics very much. But if even 1 percent of a large population checks the wrong box on a question, it could lead to an inaccurate picture of a smaller population.

For example, you’ll see in the video below that if you have 1,000 circles and 100,000 squares and just one-percent of the squares are counted as circles, then that’s one thousand squares now listed as circles. This mismarking would result in responses that double the amount of circles.

A similar data capture error affected the 2010 Census results for same-sex couple households. On the form used by census takers, the boxes for sex were placed vertically, and the wrong gender box was marked for a small percentage of opposite-sex partners, artificially increasing the percentage of same-sex couple households.

When we discovered this inconsistency in the responses, we developed a better set of estimates to provide a more accurate measure of same-sex married and unmarried partner households. These estimates are now available.

At the Census Bureau, we strive to eliminate these kinds of errors and modify our survey questionnaires to gather the best possible data on the nation’s people, places and economy.

This brief video illustrates how a small error in a large population can create a large error in a smaller related population, such as the same-sex couple population.

 

For more information, visit our online press kit.

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American Community Survey Takes Our Nation’s Demographic Pulse Each Year

Written by: James Treat, US Census Bureau

In every census between 1940 and 2000, millions of American households received a “long form”, which contained scores of questions on a wide range of demographic, socioeconomic and housing topics.

Following the 2000 Census, the long form was, in effect, split off from the census and turned into the American Community Survey. The rationale was simple: because our nation changes so rapidly, our communities needed this kind of information on a much more frequent basis − annually, rather than once a decade − in order to make informed decisions about where to build roads, construct schools and locate emergency services. And businesses sought these key data much more often than once every 10 years too for the purposes of site selection and marketing.

Yesterday, the Census Bureau released results from the annual ACS, which cover 2010. The information was collected from almost 2 million housing unit interviews across the country.

The survey offers statistics on more than 40 subjects, such as income, health insurance coverage, commuting to work, educational attainment, language spoken at home, ancestry, selected monthly homeowner costs, the foreign-born population, occupation, and military veterans. The numbers are available for not only the nation as a whole and all of our states and congressional districts, but also for counties and cities with total populations of more than 65,000. Statistics for smaller areas will be available later in the year.

Dig deep into this goldmine of numbers and here are a few of the nuggets you will find:

• Average travel time to work was highest for Maryland (31.8 minutes) and then New York (31.3 minutes). North Dakota had the lowest average travel times (16.1) followed by South Dakota (16.8).
• Real median household income decreased between the 2009 ACS and 2010 ACS in 35 states. For 15 states and the District of Columbia, real median household income in the 2010 ACS was not statistically different from that in the 2009 ACS.
• In 2010, 32 percent of the foreign-born population from Latin America were naturalized citizens. Among counties of birth, Jamaica (61 percent) and Cuba (56 percent) had the highest percent naturalized. Mexico (23 percent) and Honduras (21 percent) were among the countries with the lowest percent naturalized.
• In 2010, the percent of individuals 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree ranged from 17.5 percent in West Virginia to 39.0 percent in Massachusetts. In six states more than one-third of those 25 and over had a bachelor’s degree: Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia.

In October, the Census Bureau will release a set of ACS estimates covering all areas with populations of 20,000 or more, based on data collected between 2008 and 2010. A third set of ACS estimates, covering the 2006-2010 period, will be released in December, providing information for all geographic areas regardless of size.

Nowhere else will one see data on such a wide array of key attributes about our communities. To dig into the data yourself, visit the American FactFinder.

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